Product management and the stock market are basically the same thing, except in the stock market, your mistakes result in financial ruin, and in product management, they result in awkward all-hands meetings where you have to explain why “users just didn’t get it.”
Both fields require making high-stakes bets based on limited information, a deep understanding of human psychology, and a willingness to pretend you saw things coming even when you obviously didn’t. And, as history has shown us, humans are terrible at predicting the future, but we do it anyway.
Fortunately, history has also gifted us some spectacularly bad decisions, all of which serve as valuable lessons for any product manager trying to navigate the chaos.
1. People Are Predictably Irrational (And That’s Your Problem Now)
If humans made decisions rationally, Las Vegas wouldn’t exist, and nobody would have bought Crocs in 2006. The stock market and product management both rely on the assumption that people behave in logical ways; until they don’t.
Picture this: Australia has an emu problem. Farmers complain that the giant birds (nature’s worst mistake) are eating their crops. So, in a truly innovative display of problem-solving, the Australian government sends the army with machine guns to wage war against emus.
The result? The emus won. The birds proved too fast, too unpredictable, and completely unbothered by military-grade weapons. After wasting thousands of bullets, the government surrendered to a bunch of flightless birds.
PM Takeaway:
Users, like emus, do not behave the way you expect them to. You can have all the data, all the strategy, and still find yourself in a losing battle against unexpected user behavior. Never assume rationality, test, observe, and always have a Plan B (or a Plan “Get Me Out of Here”).
2. Price Comparison = Prioritization (A Lesson in Pigeons and Missiles)
The stock market isn’t about whether something is good, it’s about whether it’s better than the alternative. Product management is no different. Every feature, every roadmap item, and every user request fights for resources. Your job is to prioritize the things that matter.
Example: Project Pigeon (1940s, USA)
During World War II, the U.S. military had a problem: guiding missiles accurately. Enter behavioral psychologist B.F. Skinner, who had an innovative idea, trained pigeons to peck at a target screen inside a missile and have them steer the bomb by pecking in the right direction.
Yes. This was real. They spent actual government money on pigeon-guided missiles.
Predictably, the project was canceled because, as it turns out, pigeons are not ideal weapons specialists.
PM Takeaway:
Just because you can build something doesn’t mean you should. Prioritization is everything. Every product backlog has at least one “pigeon missile” in it, a feature that sounds clever but is fundamentally ridiculous. Learn to spot them before you waste valuable time.
3. Timing is Everything (Or, How to Invent the Wrong Thing at the Wrong Time)
Like buying stock, launching a product at the wrong time can be disastrous. Release too early, and nobody’s ready for it. Wait too long, and someone else steals your thunder.
In 1814, a massive vat of beer at a London brewery exploded, releasing 1.4 million liters of beer into the streets. The tsunami of ale destroyed houses, flooded basements, and tragically, resulted in casualties (which is the worst way to go out in a beer-related incident).
Now, imagine this happened today. Twitter would explode. People would wade through the flood with mugs, startups would launch “Uber for Beer,” and TikTok influencers would stage dramatic re-enactments. It would be the marketing event of the century. But in 1814? There was no branding, no social media, no customer acquisition strategy. Just wasted beer and a public health hazard.
PM Takeaway:
The right idea at the wrong time is still a failure. Innovation is great, but if the market isn’t ready for it, it doesn’t matter. Also, if you ever accidentally flood a city with beer, turn it into a PR stunt immediately.
4. Hype is Real (But So is the Crash)
Stock markets and users both get swept up in trends. The dot-com bubble. NFTs. Fidget spinners. Your job as a product manager is to figure out whether a trend is a real opportunity or just another overhyped disaster waiting to happen.
Example: New Coke (1985, USA)
In the 1980s, Coca-Cola decided to fix a problem that didn’t exist. Despite being the best-selling soda in the world, Coke panicked when Pepsi gained market share. Their solution? Change the recipe.
The result? People lost their minds. Outraged customers hoarded old Coke, launched protests, and bombarded the company with complaints. Coca-Cola eventually backtracked and reintroduced “Coca-Cola Classic,” which, let’s be honest, was just an expensive way of saying, “Our bad.”
PM Takeaway:
Trends can trick you into fixing things that aren’t broken. Customers don’t always want new, they want better. If you’re going to change something, make sure it actually improves the experience, not just confuses everyone. (Ehem AI, Ehem)
5. No One Knows Anything (But Act Like You Do Anyway)
The biggest lesson from the stock market is that even the so-called experts get it wrong all the time. But that doesn’t stop them from confidently making predictions. Product managers? Same deal.
Example: The Titanic (1912, Atlantic Ocean)
The Titanic was marketed as “unsinkable.” Experts, engineers, and the media all agreed, this was the safest ship ever built. Then, bam, iceberg. It turns out, the ship was very sinkable.
What made it worse? They were so confident in their predictions that they didn’t pack enough lifeboats.
PM Takeaway:
You will be wrong. A lot. The trick is to be wrong in a way that doesn’t completely sink the ship. Build lifeboats (aka backup plans). Run small tests. Iterate. And for the love of everything, never assume your launch is “unsinkable.”
Final Takeaway: Be a Smart Gambler
when all is said and done, product management and the stock market are both games of uncertainty. You’re making bets, stacking the odds in your favor, and hoping reality doesn’t laugh in your face.
And when in doubt, remember the golden rule of both fields:
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